MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a5d4238f256bcaa26f1102cd1c55c1db02c8777527a2abc9b5320b6d5e7a9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 1,028$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 870$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.1 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 863.74$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 727.99$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 160.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 156$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 147.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 134.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 83.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 59.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 59.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 59.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 51.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 48.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 45.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 43.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 43.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 39.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 37.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 24.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.