MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe98ba6f115d88d32df3edf7bc7a551b84d54b80fba67f4baa1da7f010ccff4d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 1,043$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 757.79$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 490.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 482$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.56 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 414.29$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.29 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 405$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.9 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 287.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 285.69$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 248$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 221$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 185.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 164.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 102.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 100.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 93.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 77.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Kansas City Royals | 28c | 44.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 36.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 30.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.