Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0acb18b799c906ef150460c2a4fae86408055243a25adfac1a2cb57b1d88aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCU Horned Frogsof TCU Horned Frogs, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed TCU Horned Frogs | 52c | 12,500$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.96 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 5,218$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.46 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 4,543$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.78 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked TCU Horned Frogs | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 1,634$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.51 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 840.51$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.44 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 722.8$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.94 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 53c | 699.95$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.23 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 505.54$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.66 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 497.7$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.89 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed TCU Horned Frogs | 53c | 374.07$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.81 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 331.88$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 289.12$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 203.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 198.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 185.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -9.6wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed TCU Horned Frogs | 43c | 157.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed TCU Horned Frogs | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 140.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed TCU Horned Frogs | 45c | 128$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 46c | 114.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 52c | 66.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed TCU Horned Frogs | 68c | 51.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 32c | 50.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed TCU Horned Frogs | 41c | 50.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 53c | 46.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 35.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 46c | 32.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cbd5backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 30.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-6.5)this page
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. TCU Horned FrogsTCU Horned Frogs won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 147.5Over won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 148.5Over won
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 149.5Over won
- Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-7.5)TCU Horned Frogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.