TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. TCU Horned Frogs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TCU Horned Frogsof Arizona State Sun Devils, TCU Horned Frogs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf41a…ea2bbacked TCU Horned Frogs73c3,454$2,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.882,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils27c2,368$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.3237441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Arizona State Sun Devils28c1,688$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.261,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked TCU Horned Frogs73c1,202$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.81,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked TCU Horned Frogs67c1,034$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.445,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed TCU Horned Frogs77c1,018$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.713,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils19c908.13$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.654,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Arizona State Sun Devils26c700.82$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.5334943.3%151 W · 198 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed TCU Horned Frogs77c651.38$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.65,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Arizona State Sun Devils27c529.1$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9824847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Arizona State Sun Devils28c499.28$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.82,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Arizona State Sun Devils21c480.75$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4314325.9%37 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed TCU Horned Frogs69c409.31$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9293247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils27c400$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10755532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba6a…1985backed Arizona State Sun Devils27c369.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.83195.3%1 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick29cpaid-87.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked TCU Horned Frogs73c336.01$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7240755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed TCU Horned Frogs73c303.68$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.151,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona State Sun Devils33c285.33$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.872,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Arizona State Sun Devils18c219.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2881528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils27c207$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.892,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Arizona State Sun Devils27c199.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.931,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d1…a379backed TCU Horned Frogs74c167.78$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.625457.4%31 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Arizona State Sun Devils28c141.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7230853.2%164 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TCU Horned Frogs67c131.47$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.84,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa60…9b86backed TCU Horned Frogs76c130.74$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.389769.1%67 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked TCU Horned Frogs74c127.51$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.155158.8%30 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed TCU Horned Frogs75c117.82$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.952,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked TCU Horned Frogs75c104.67$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.041,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed TCU Horned Frogs77c93.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.352,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed TCU Horned Frogs73c86.81$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4444549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…6ce1backed Arizona State Sun Devils23c86.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arizona State Sun Devils24c84.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed TCU Horned Frogs73c72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6943053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7a…7c83backed Arizona State Sun Devils28c64.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Arizona State Sun Devils27c60.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.411,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f0…dd88backed Arizona State Sun Devils53c54.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked TCU Horned Frogs78c52.03$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4271655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed TCU Horned Frogs74c49.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9164658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Arizona State Sun Devils27c49.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3916140.4%65 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed TCU Horned Frogs73c47.57$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6730945.6%141 W · 168 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed TCU Horned Frogs65c47.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.481,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbe…993abacked Arizona State Sun Devils33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.246154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed TCU Horned Frogs70c39.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9111051.8%57 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb2d9…58f5backed TCU Horned Frogs73c36.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Arizona State Sun Devils28c35.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.013520%7 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Arizona State Sun Devils33c32.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.681,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked TCU Horned Frogs72c32.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed TCU Horned Frogs73c29.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.149157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe05c…64bdbacked TCU Horned Frogs73c27.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed TCU Horned Frogs71c19.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.