La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0b228e82e6b3009a0fce339713a8e16302cf7dcf2077704075823b3a73c3730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.98 | 245 | 47.3%116 W · 129 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 39c | 1,331$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.73 | 4,856 | 47%2,282 W · 2,574 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 39c | 673$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.47 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed No | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 10c | 613.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 37c | 613$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.44 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 61c | 449.98$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.49 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 41c | 320.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.24 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…c8d3backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 37c | 273.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 38c | 225.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…80f6backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 39c | 164.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 40c | 145.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 141.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3,571 | 42.6%1,522 W · 2,049 L | +26.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 58c | 119.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32f…ae42backed Yes | 40c | 99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Yes | 22c | 68.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 60c | 55.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 284 | 47.2%134 W · 150 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…8328backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…3e05backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…cd73backed Yes | 40c | 45.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Levante UD win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
- Will Real Oviedo vs. Levante UD end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.