Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ba038c7d3835c006fa0bf3cba3cac310708c20fc01a53f241dce1a00e54644
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,966 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,466$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,217$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec1…6554backed Yes | 1c | 1,058$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 10c | 1,040$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 11c | 870.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 13c | 721$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 449.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 435.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…a387backed Yes | 9c | 432.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 309.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed Yes | 11c | 304.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 8c | 280.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 253.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…bd4ebacked Yes | 8c | 204.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…35cdbacked Yes | 14c | 196.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 6c | 184.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 11c | 176.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 11c | 169.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 152.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 8c | 149.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 13c | 148.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 11c | 146.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…c3e7backed Yes | 13c | 141.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 10c | 138.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 135.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 13c | 118.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 109.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 12c | 105.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 103.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…8e70backed Yes | 13c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…4fd4backed Yes | 11c | 102.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…aa8bbacked Yes | 12c | 97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 87.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 16c | 76.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.