Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa260fb28feebced3be100c2f8fc7ed1671b97faf36ee58a41ee61c73ed441d91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,252 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 80c | 852.03$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.37 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 827.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 592.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 11c | 580.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 520.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 499.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 14c | 458.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 10c | 443.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 323.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 319.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 18c | 316.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 14c | 284.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 276.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 27c | 274.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 264.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 259.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 24c | 222.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 213$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 207.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 148.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 140.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 14c | 138.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 133.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 131.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 128.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 127.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 22c | 125.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 120.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…d67fbacked Yes | 24c | 103.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 92.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…15aabacked Yes | 12c | 86.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 16c | 67.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…caa0backed Yes | 22c | 67.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 74c | 67.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 22c | 53.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 76c | 48.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 39.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 80c | 39.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 76c | 38.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 36.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 34.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No | 76c | 34.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 28.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 73c | 25.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 78c | 20.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…c069backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.