Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd419d04ab2c87b5b5aae917cfd96c4e141d1624310811a9d850250e26e35508f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,936 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 1c | 2,277$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 33c | 1,471$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.68 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,119$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 999.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 915.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 891.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.56 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 49c | 707.83$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.99 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 7c | 572.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.04 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.64 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 51c | 490.22$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.13 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 3c | 426.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 418.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 4c | 406.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.42 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 78c | 367.1$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 349.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 343.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 7c | 329.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.3 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 3c | 312.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.33 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 304.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 5c | 291.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 78c | 225$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 206.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 175.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…5b03backed Yes | 12c | 159$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 60c | 99.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 76c | 99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 87.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 35c | 87.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 15c | 84.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked No | 17c | 80.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 42c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed No | 34c | 59.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 23c | 54.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…64d5backed Yes | 76c | 47.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac6…2629backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 70c | 35.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 34.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 56c | 28.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 79c | 25.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.