Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf194f3d781f3d3ec2b92af211623afb1ac673f4fea7e862c1417d5229302879c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,240 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 1c | 15,933$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.57 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,482$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.41 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 53c | 1,470$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.2 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec1…6554backed Yes | 1c | 1,028$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 669.26$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.06 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 27c | 596.29$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 50c | 594.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 550$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 17c | 506.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 421.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 329.06$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 24c | 303.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 230$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 68c | 205.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 57c | 193.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 166.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 165.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 158.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 156.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 53c | 155.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 36c | 139$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 131.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 106.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 72c | 103.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcd…6d98backed Yes | 38c | 102.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 26c | 100.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 40c | 100.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 31c | 100.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 28c | 98.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 25c | 97.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…a387backed Yes | 23c | 90.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 88.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 80c | 85.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 80.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 36c | 71.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…0a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 70.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 70.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 39c | 68.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 30c | 62.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 57.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 54.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…7385backed Yes | 23c | 51.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 50.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 49.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 27c | 48.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 47.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…90c3backed Yes | 25c | 46.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 29c | 44.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 43.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…7e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 29c | 36.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 50c | 35.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 48c | 31.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 31.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024d…4f2dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 30.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 71c | 29.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 21.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 76c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 19.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 18.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 77c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 79c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 76c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…2580backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.