Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf24998e30bd98e2c0be92a2d507e6aa8c3a487bd0c881d53fa3c72fc2dbae591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,087 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 21c | 3,372$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.62 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…23abbacked Yes | 0c | 2,816$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,305$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.46 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,093$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 40c | 786.83$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.11 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 41c | 775.23$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.94 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 599.68$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.83 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 2c | 541.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 42c | 423.29$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 36c | 348.23$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.61 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 61c | 324.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 34c | 303.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 31c | 297.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 295.55$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 291.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 259.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 236.88$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 233.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 43c | 219.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 213.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcd…6d98backed Yes | 48c | 208.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 70c | 176.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 67c | 167.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 44c | 158.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 50c | 158$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 34c | 157.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 148.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 36c | 141.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 139.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 139.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 59c | 131.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 123.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 67c | 122.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 69c | 117$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 108.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 58c | 107.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 36c | 100.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 94.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 54c | 94.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 89.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 21c | 87.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 67c | 84.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 84.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 57c | 79.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 68c | 75.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 72.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 31c | 72.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 53c | 69.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 33c | 64.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed Yes | 39c | 64.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 60.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 33c | 60.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…22f3backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 59.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 71c | 56.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 55.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 50.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 65c | 48.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 55c | 47.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 39c | 44.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 44.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 27c | 42.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 57c | 41.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 39c | 40.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 39.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 51c | 35.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 70c | 32.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb0…4fffbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56f…1de4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.