NFL · resolved market
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl LVIII?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0bd0534ce9c9206ca34804ffd13abd60f8b32e2f51867803935cfe966ebb338
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff56…8999backed Yes | 10c | 30,740$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 10c | 2,316$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 12c | 2,205$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c9…aba4backed Yes | 12c | 2,083$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…e554backed Yes | 9c | 1,888$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.02 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…1719backed Yes | 12c | 1,519$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,444$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 7c | 1,133$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…eca5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…13c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…aa10backed Yes | 10c | 998.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 10c | 850$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0f…4cbdbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…0cf8backed Yes | 61c | 722.16$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140b…bcd7backed Yes | 11c | 641.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 11c | 590.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…2ae7backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…2203backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…5ea3backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…6d01backed Yes | 11c | 363.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…a7afbacked Yes | 10c | 327.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…eb4ebacked Yes | 5c | 323.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f002backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…d4c2backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 7c | 211.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 11c | 204.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 197$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…da30backed Yes | 11c | 189$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl LVIII?this page
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.