NFL · resolved market
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LVIII?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x769747175187e9599c58629aec4d0fb9f9593254dda5adcd288fd78efe1c37d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 34c | 23,140$7,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,886.2 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 69c | 21,327$14,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,650.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 26c | 9,615$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 32c | 9,000$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,905 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed No | 68c | 8,000$5,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…7ed3backed Yes | 28c | 5,450$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 65c | 1,444$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.4 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…1719backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 26c | 985$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 48c | 969$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbb…f095backed Yes | 25c | 828.72$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd300…0d6bbacked Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 68c | 509$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…d90dbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…bba4backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 21c | 299.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…a742backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x140b…bcd7backed Yes | 29c | 235.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8665…72d7backed Yes | 24c | 206.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…c70abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 24c | 193.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…c9a9backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa101…3296backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 60c | 143.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7466…9fa4backed Yes | 25c | 118.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95a…4ee4backed Yes | 25c | 99.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f0…87fcbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8b…f41fbacked Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…8c13backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…37e6backed Yes | 33c | 62.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked No | 71c | 48.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e22…dd6dbacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…4d7cbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…ce72backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d3…d833backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2154…69a1backed Yes | 33c | 39.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc9…148ebacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LVIII?this page
- Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LVIII?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.