CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0c371658bd80d59fbb0c8b92eb2f966122f0684cb5e6d49a96f34be936e9969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof FURIA, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2307…3934backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 8,698$5,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,653.71 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed FURIA | 35c | 7,025$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,566.19 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…d3ebbacked FURIA | 37c | 5,184$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…2c81backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 5,154$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed FURIA | 35c | 4,600$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,989.98 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 1,495$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 782.89$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.88 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed FURIA | 32c | 515.1$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.06 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 364.78$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 294.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…1ac0backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 204.62$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked FURIA | 31c | 194.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed FURIA | 36c | 194.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.72 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f48dbacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 117.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…d6f0backed FURIA | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…90c8backed FURIA | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 92.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Aurora Gaming | 47c | 80.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 232 | 34.9%81 W · 151 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…9881backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed FURIA | 36c | 55.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…5901backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…7009backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 40.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 40.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed FURIA | 47c | 36.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Aurora Gaming | 58c | 34.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebd…6dc0backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 67.9%93 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked FURIA | 49c | 30.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 460 | 42.8%197 W · 263 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…c2babacked Aurora Gaming | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 46.7%220 W · 251 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…dc58backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 29.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…966bbacked FURIA | 58c | 29.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed FURIA | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3a…3bebbacked FURIA | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fa…cecfbacked FURIA | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc4…9307backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow PlayoffsFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 WinnerFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 WinnerFURIA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.