MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f40d4b0117c0405ba2f18b0bd470ec943e816be5e17cffd4eaf37a021cb6a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 2,170$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 1,786$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,398$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 18c | 1,102$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 1,008$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 974.39$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 41c | 844.54$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.43 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Over | 79c | 600$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 10c | 399$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 68c | 328.82$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.3 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 11c | 293.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Under | 43c | 270$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 31c | 210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 61c | 161.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 13c | 156.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 69c | 111.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Under | 69c | 87.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 65c | 81.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 78.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 17c | 73.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 77c | 67.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 17c | 64.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 60.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 33c | 47.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 52c | 38.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 79c | 31.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 36c | 29.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 58c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 79c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 66c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.