MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b1b8b5133a98534032dc4223883dfff7690dd71108190bac2dcb4c1809c880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Cleveland Guardians, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 1,209$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 939.93$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.46 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…0a3ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 578.66$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 577$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.96 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 572.76$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 408.58$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 261.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 240.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 184.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 184.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 183.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 177.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 157.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 139.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 136.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 104.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 67.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 66.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 65.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 193 | 43.5%84 W · 109 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 63.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 50.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 43.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 42.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 30.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.