MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cfbc736b8c03d0d3c0c433935b7b7acc8ba493d36a225e1816ffa6f0e63e2ea

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Washington Nationalsof Cleveland Guardians, Washington Nationals
Resolved: May 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $79,231
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $80,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,231 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbd14…d62abacked Cleveland Guardians	46c	21,875$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	243	44.4%108 W · 135 L	-11.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Cleveland Guardians	45c	16,732$7,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,500	613	51.5%316 W · 297 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals	55c	14,220$7,793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,427.41	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Cleveland Guardians	45c	5,556$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	379	53.6%203 W · 176 L	+18.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals	54c	5,494$2,991 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,502.68	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Cleveland Guardians	44c	5,100$2,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,244	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Washington Nationals	55c	4,530$2,494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,036.04	491	58.9%289 W · 202 L	+30.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals	55c	4,266$2,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,939.82	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Washington Nationals	55c	4,000$2,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,799.99	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Washington Nationals	54c	3,584$1,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,648.82	51	43.1%22 W · 29 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Washington Nationals	55c	3,000$1,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,350	779	51.1%398 W · 381 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals	28c	2,279$630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,649.46	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals	55c	2,261$1,235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,026.39	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b6…0bf6backed Cleveland Guardians	75c	2,137$1,603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,603	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Washington Nationals	55c	1,980$1,079 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900.6	890	53.1%473 W · 417 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Washington Nationals	56c	1,820$1,019 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800.8	1,909	53.5%1,021 W · 888 L	+29.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Washington Nationals	55c	1,800$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$810	866	53%459 W · 407 L	+16.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals	55c	1,653$909 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$743.72	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals	55c	1,650$907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$742.37	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians	42c	1,420$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.2	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals	62c	1,316$815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.78	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Washington Nationals	54c	1,150$621 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$529	92	62%57 W · 35 L	+8.9wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Cleveland Guardians	45c	1,050$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.5	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a8…0753backed Washington Nationals	54c	1,002$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.92	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9702…9453backed Washington Nationals	54c	1,001$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.46	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11b8…4a42backed Washington Nationals	54c	1,001$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.46	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5803…7a85backed Washington Nationals	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked Washington Nationals	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.9wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09c1…0ddfbacked Washington Nationals	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked Washington Nationals	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Washington Nationals	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals	55c	1,000$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed Washington Nationals	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals	56c	999.99$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Washington Nationals	55c	983.06$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.38	568	51.4%292 W · 276 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals	53c	783.5$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.12	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Cleveland Guardians	44c	756.82$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	181	51.4%93 W · 88 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Washington Nationals	54c	654.52$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.73	473	50.7%240 W · 233 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Cleveland Guardians	46c	543.48$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	205	52.7%108 W · 97 L	+12.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83f6…c26abacked Washington Nationals	55c	442.25$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.01	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Cleveland Guardians	46c	434.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals	54c	432.91$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.67	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Washington Nationals	54c	312$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.52	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals	54c	286.56$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.94	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e4a…5ba6backed Cleveland Guardians	46c	267.26$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.94	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals	55c	190.91$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.45	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals	37c	189.86$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.36	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Washington Nationals	53c	185.87$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.36	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Cleveland Guardians	34c	181.07$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.56	996	24.6%245 W · 751 L	-70.1wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Washington Nationals	56c	180$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.2	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians	47c	170.21$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	795	43%342 W · 453 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…e4a2backed Cleveland Guardians	45c	155.56$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Washington Nationals	54c	150.37$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.57	1,056	48.3%510 W · 546 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals	34c	126.73$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.49	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Cleveland Guardians	71c	113$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.82	475	89.1%423 W · 52 L	+84.9wins	+0.18per pick	71cpaid	+25%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals	60c	107.88$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Washington Nationals	56c	103.5$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.54	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-8.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-23%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6210…4fb1backed Washington Nationals	55c	90$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.5	147	59.9%88 W · 59 L	+14.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians	46c	85.43$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	664	48.2%320 W · 344 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a58…f9d8backed Cleveland Guardians	33c	82$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.06	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-3.9wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Washington Nationals	54c	81.48$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.48	312	50%156 W · 156 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf6…34bcbacked Cleveland Guardians	33c	74.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.67	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians	44c	64$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Washington Nationals	56c	57$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.08	726	48.1%349 W · 377 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94fd…7fefbacked Washington Nationals	71c	56.61$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.61	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians	43c	54.1$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals	68c	48.57$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.78	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Washington Nationals	56c	40.1$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.64	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians	39c	37.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.77	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Washington Nationals	57c	34$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.62	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Cleveland Guardians	66c	33.26$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	1,083	56.3%610 W · 473 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Washington Nationals	39c	32.24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.67	1,038	51.7%537 W · 501 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1641…a37fbacked Cleveland Guardians	45c	29.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians	41c	28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cleveland Guardians	43c	27.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	1,149	48.9%562 W · 587 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc94…a3b6backed Cleveland Guardians	46c	26.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed Cleveland Guardians	45c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	119	49.6%59 W · 60 L	-7.6wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals	53c	20.77$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.76	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ded…3350backed Washington Nationals	59c	18.27$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event