MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb55f90810f83286b447eb23a4d5326b774768872c6f91ccfb20eee0d6da83e4

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,329 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	49c	17,636$8,642 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,994.5	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Over	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,100	151	48.3%73 W · 78 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,560	246	51.6%127 W · 119 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	52c	2,315$1,204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,203.8	3,509	51%1,789 W · 1,720 L	+53.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over	51c	1,840$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$938.4	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Over	54c	1,799$971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$971.18	104	46.2%48 W · 56 L	-8.3wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-16%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over	52c	1,346$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	390	47.4%185 W · 205 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	55c	1,112$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.6	686	52.9%363 W · 323 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	21c	948.92$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.57	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over	51c	860$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.6	890	53.1%473 W · 417 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	59c	773.89$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.04	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Under	48c	722$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.44	174	46%80 W · 94 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under	48c	676.78$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.93	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	51c	600$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	48c	528.92$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.47	9,819	46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under	52c	507.79$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.4	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Over	53c	471.7$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	384	55.2%212 W · 172 L	+9.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over	45c	468.74$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.93	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under	49c	374.27$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.88	1,922	53.4%1,027 W · 895 L	+28.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	50c	320.72$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.23	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12a2…c60dbacked Under	62c	312.9$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.9	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	51c	280.55$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.36	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	38c	247.88$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.2	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over	45c	219.87$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.94	795	55.6%442 W · 353 L	+21.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Over	45c	217.54$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.9	739	49.8%368 W · 371 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over	46c	215$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.9	1,737	49.1%852 W · 885 L	+7.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Over	46c	215$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.9	970	50.7%492 W · 478 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	22c	192.55$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.26	999	24.6%246 W · 753 L	-70.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Over	52c	192$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	208	48.6%101 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	48c	156.15$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.2	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over	45c	146.02$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.71	1,379	50.6%698 W · 681 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	50c	129.73$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.46	8,594	52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L	+508.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	60c	124$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.93	6,123	55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L	+346.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over	52c	112.67$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.16	1,056	48.3%510 W · 546 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	296	56.1%166 W · 130 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	37c	105$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.13	6,305	48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L	+181.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under	51c	103.94$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.93	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9783…dccabacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Over	51c	84.93$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.35	425	50.1%213 W · 212 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	49c	83$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.67	3,219	51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L	+148.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	45c	81.2$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.54	1,345	47.7%642 W · 703 L	+10.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Over	46c	79.35$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	324	50.9%165 W · 159 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	802	55%441 W · 361 L	+24.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	625	54.2%339 W · 286 L	+18.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bcc…13c3backed Over	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over	53c	56.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.78	37	67.6%25 W · 12 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Over	55c	55.6$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.58	312	58%181 W · 131 L	+15.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd030…f3f0backed Over	46c	53.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.72	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over	63c	52.69$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.19	2,588	61.5%1,591 W · 997 L	+72.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Under	52c	50.9$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.43	428	49.1%210 W · 218 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	726	48.1%349 W · 377 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	53c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	272	48.5%132 W · 140 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under	47c	49.99$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed Over	49c	46.56$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	257	48.2%124 W · 133 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Under	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	149	46.3%69 W · 80 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf1c…ec86backed Over	40c	41.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	48c	41.08$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.36	2,995	47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L	+12.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde1b…5710backed Over	45c	32.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	101	45.5%46 W · 55 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94fd…7fefbacked Under	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa02e…60d0backed Over	46c	29.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.74	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-24%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcce1…7572backed Over	54c	27.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0529…44bbbacked Under	53c	27.37$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under	46c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	1,828	54.1%989 W · 839 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	419	36.5%153 W · 266 L	-31.1wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	46c	23.93$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.92	3,841	42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Over	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	439	54.7%240 W · 199 L	+30.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under	65c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	619	48.6%301 W · 318 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event