Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1044ceef17be0b091770d8f656b2915871981e76530b946c1b4f964e6882d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 69c | 616.55$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.81 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 412$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 292.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.36 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 246.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 45c | 237.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 179.35$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 178.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 63c | 177.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 164.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 61c | 162.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 160.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 73c | 159.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 48c | 157.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 67c | 149.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 147.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 131.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 130.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 129$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 13c | 127.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 23c | 119.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 16c | 116.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 27c | 110.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 63c | 106.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 105.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 102.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 100.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 87.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 87.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 57c | 87.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 84.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 16c | 84.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 76c | 80.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 73.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 73c | 68.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 67.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 46c | 61.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 60.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 60.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 29c | 60.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 59.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 59.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 38c | 56.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 34c | 55.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 30c | 50.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 70c | 49.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 22c | 49.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 49.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 71c | 48.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 31c | 46.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 59c | 46.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 36c | 43.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 41.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 73c | 41.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…4a1bbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 60c | 39.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 72c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 71c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 46c | 32.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 47c | 31.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 31.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 47c | 31.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 78c | 23.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 23.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 22.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 46c | 22.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 73c | 21.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 19.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 18.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 58c | 17.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…9964backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 72c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed Yes | 67c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…f4e4backed No | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 68c | 14.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.