Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd4b1f520741baa4273014d7853fdec07f102038a49f61ca5459bae62a501227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 2,622$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,303$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 933.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe774…5cefbacked Yes | 2c | 653.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 3c | 577$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 31c | 544.26$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 13c | 511.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 480.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 468.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 464.27$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 358.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 14c | 335.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 68c | 256.37$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 4c | 249.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 8c | 236.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 13c | 223$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked No | 75c | 193.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 191.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 13c | 187.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 168.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 9c | 161.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 13c | 159.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…b6b0backed Yes | 11c | 145.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 17c | 138.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 23c | 135.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked Yes | 14c | 133.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 127.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 14c | 126.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 31c | 121.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 117.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 22c | 92.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 16c | 82.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 73.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…b7cebacked Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 41c | 49.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 47.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 42.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f1…adbebacked Yes | 45c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ffb3backed Yes | 28c | 37.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 42c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…d909backed Yes | 56c | 28.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 67cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked No | 77c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.