NFL · resolved market
Will Ty Simpson be drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe111cfcc9819a52c8a236c9ed75334e6e3e7a14363683a0ebfdd57424ec7d248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 66c | 253.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 28c | 243.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 34c | 186.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 65c | 182.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 71c | 152.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 75c | 145.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 36c | 122.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 35c | 122$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 69c | 103.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 66c | 101.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 30c | 97.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 73.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…b58fbacked No | 30c | 59.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 68c | 46.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c5…29cfbacked No | 32c | 44.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e5…7087backed No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…0d73backed Yes | 77c | 37.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 35.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 73c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…8fd0backed Yes | 69c | 29.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 23.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…ca45backed Yes | 76c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 52c | 21.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 68c | 21.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…f9bfbacked Yes | 73c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ty Simpson be drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football Draft?this page
- Will Fernando Mendoza be drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football Draft?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.