MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11c5d6f22c40b3775b064f8f7f89b00c19f41a0f722287da3c4c4e72ae9fa66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 3,823$2,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.71 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 2,601$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.68 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 1,347$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 1,299$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.67 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 1,033$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 244.18$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 208.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 188.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 107.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 100.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 95.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 77.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 65.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 45.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 42.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 22.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.