MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18393c26f0aab1fbe8500261d2fea85f9f608c45562bc21758f6c64edb286e73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 8,256$3,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,568.9 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 4,723$2,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 2,181$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 56c | 2,000$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.04 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,695$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 1,691$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 57c | 1,089$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 823.63$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.13 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 60c | 663.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.93 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Under | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 44c | 424.93$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.97 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 413.17$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 412.08$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 42c | 348.25$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 80c | 304$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 44c | 290.32$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 44c | 248.55$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 21c | 242.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 237.65$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 58c | 234.79$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 42c | 234.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.84 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 42c | 217.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 174.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 56c | 160.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 40c | 127.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 45c | 127.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 61c | 113.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 64c | 94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 85.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 45c | 84.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 75.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 44c | 58.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 51.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 45c | 48.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 66c | 43.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 66c | 42.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 54c | 32.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 23.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…f271backed Under | 61c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Under | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 55c | 18.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.