MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72c0cbb025675d5f06365c1f9d8db25e4397a573a8a13562edc98d244208f94f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed No | 59c | 664.42$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.01 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Yes | 41c | 536.35$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.45 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 41c | 431.51$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 43c | 367.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…7af1backed No | 59c | 232$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed No | 59c | 172.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked No | 58c | 172.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…5a37backed No | 60c | 167.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed No | 59c | 165.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 42c | 160$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 41c | 156.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes | 42c | 144.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked No | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 41c | 132$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f9…7280backed No | 59c | 101.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 41c | 56.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 51.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 33.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 61c | 32.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…a8e5backed No | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Raysthis page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.