Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe12fd5bfdbf598c7845b78b42672e207ad5db973921e4c0a1e30ff2b17f7fa2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 73c | 683.62$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.72 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Yes | 25c | 657.55$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.59 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 59c | 652.14$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.84 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 25c | 347.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…76debacked Yes | 66c | 339.16$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…f35abacked Yes | 59c | 277.46$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 401 | 45.4%182 W · 219 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 54c | 276.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Yes | 28c | 252.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.54 | 261 | 55.2%144 W · 117 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed No | 69c | 247.98$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.11 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a07…1d4dbacked No | 71c | 236$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 132 | 31.8%42 W · 90 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Yes | 28c | 202.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.51 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed No | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 29c | 195.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 62c | 173.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Yes | 77c | 161.88$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 40c | 119.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 62c | 104$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 432 | 46.8%202 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 80c | 100.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…f72abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…0625backed No | 30c | 87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…26bcbacked Yes | 29c | 85.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked No | 20c | 61.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,380 | 40.2%555 W · 825 L | -51.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…7621backed Yes | 29c | 51.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea67…ceebbacked Yes | 75c | 49.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 47.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 326 | 39%127 W · 199 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc4…9782backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 32c | 37.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 340 | 35%119 W · 221 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d8…59dbbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…cc14backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed No | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 271 | 45.8%124 W · 147 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…7ce2backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 344 | 38.4%132 W · 212 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 69c | 16.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw?this page
- Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09?No won
- Will Malawi win on 2026-06-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.