Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Velež Mostar win on 2026-07-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe137f84b58f9cd64b1b82f37dec9021825f2be12589107a8d78bf1fb144cf5ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 50c | 12,500$6,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,285.67 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 47c | 4,556$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.81 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 50c | 3,090$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.31 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 52c | 2,552$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Yes | 50c | 1,434$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.77 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Yes | 49c | 1,169$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.13 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,136$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 74c | 1,036$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.93 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 55c | 1,026$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 38c | 946.83$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.84 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed Yes | 40c | 876$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.9 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 50c | 525.36$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.68 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 9c | 500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…f72abacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 55c | 500$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.94 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 55c | 499.9$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.34 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 55c | 499.59$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.74 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 13c | 459.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed No | 48c | 419.46$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 50c | 360$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.56 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Yes | 51c | 349.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 321.18$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.34 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Yes | 52c | 319.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Yes | 40c | 262.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…4a26backed Yes | 52c | 227.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked No | 51c | 215.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed No | 43c | 183.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 48c | 180$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 52c | 169.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed No | 49c | 166.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 50c | 144.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2267…3355backed No | 43c | 136.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 51c | 136.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked No | 51c | 136.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 47c | 126.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 50c | 103.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 45c | 97.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Yes | 52c | 96.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 280 | 12.9%36 W · 244 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…88c2backed Yes | 53c | 88.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…bdf0backed No | 48c | 87.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 86.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…3f75backed No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…ec8ebacked Yes | 53c | 81.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 51c | 79.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Yes | 13c | 77.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Yes | 53c | 72.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 50c | 71.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 51c | 69.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 40c | 69.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 50c | 56.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…5162backed No | 51c | 52.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 51c | 52.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked No | 51c | 52.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…f8d9backed No | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked No | 51c | 48.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 50c | 43.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 56c | 41.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Yes | 61c | 38.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…b26cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 48c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2dfabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Velež Mostar win on 2026-07-09?this page
- Will FC Milsami Orhei win on 2026-07-09?No won
- Will FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.