Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc8c6020cfd2c8d2585d0f0f59ac16e43550520ad9b35e57f0d4cbdf50cb766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 3,866$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.24 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 69c | 1,102$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.36 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 11c | 752$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed Yes | 31c | 711$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.82 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked No | 73c | 616.53$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 28c | 510$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.49 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 443.95$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.28 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 74c | 370$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.97 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 62c | 273.46$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 23c | 229.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 29c | 204.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 28c | 186.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.47 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 31c | 123$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 30c | 93.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 64c | 91.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 31c | 91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked No | 72c | 89.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 16c | 85.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed No | 34c | 82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 28c | 62.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 70c | 56.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…1ffcbacked No | 37c | 55.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 52.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 47.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 72c | 39.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 41c | 29.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 28.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…c118backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Yes | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 72c | 23.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed No | 72c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Milsami Orhei win on 2026-07-09?No won
- Will FK Velež Mostar win on 2026-07-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.