WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Mystics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1a60d60416aacdb3ca65e1a442543c4db45195773e328bc4403ad6e77f88fe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 72c | 3,895$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mystics | 28c | 3,600$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Mystics | 28c | 3,475$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Mercury | 72c | 3,221$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.9 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked Mercury | 62c | 3,063$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Mercury | 76c | 2,779$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.96 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Mystics | 42c | 2,378$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mystics | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Mystics | 24c | 1,927$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.57 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Mercury | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Mystics | 43c | 1,504$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.87 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mercury | 60c | 1,005$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.29 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Mystics | 32c | 907.12$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.38 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mercury | 56c | 769$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.67 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mystics | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…9110backed Mystics | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Mercury | 77c | 422.4$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Mystics | 46c | 382.79$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mystics | 27c | 371.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Mercury | 72c | 365.06$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mystics | 28c | 358.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mystics | 28c | 357.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mystics | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Mystics | 31c | 270.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Mystics | 26c | 245$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 60c | 232.83$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Mystics | 27c | 215$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 72c | 188.37$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mercury | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Mystics | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 73c | 109$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Mystics | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Mercury | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Mercury | 65c | 99.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Mercury | 74c | 91.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Mystics | 27c | 76.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mystics | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mystics | 27c | 62.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…3b47backed Mystics | 34c | 50.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Mystics | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mercury | 73c | 35.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Mercury | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Mercury | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mercury | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…b26cbacked Mercury | 75c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Mercury | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.