Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1af78d4ed968ed019da2164a2b441ad272aaa017ce221fee95effe7cc518146
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Olympique Lyonnaisof Paris Saint-Germain FC, Olympique Lyonnais
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 6c | 2,635$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.44 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 3c | 1,445$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Olympique Lyonnais | 71c | 1,443$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 29c | 992.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.97 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…3a2fbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 71c | 337.68$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 30c | 276.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 24c | 235.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 70c | 228.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 14c | 221.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 30c | 204.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 30c | 192.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Olympique Lyonnais | 68c | 178.81$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 17c | 145.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 14c | 110.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed Olympique Lyonnais | 68c | 89.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 17c | 75.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 32c | 74.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed Olympique Lyonnais | 69c | 66.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 32c | 66.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 30c | 66.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 32c | 64.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 18c | 64.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eca…87dabacked Olympique Lyonnais | 69c | 51.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…3458backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 30c | 51.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 69c | 29.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Olympique Lyonnais | 69c | 22.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Olympique Lyonnais | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Olympique Lyonnais | 67c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.