Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1c0227c2e9b8f3f2ad89767a4c67ea9eeab1c4d236da42eeaf252543d9e9450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf975…4354backed Yes | 25c | 6,627$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,986.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 5,675$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,453.68 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 77c | 4,000$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,079.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 80c | 3,430$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.98 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 2,916$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315.62 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 2,760$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.35 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 2,163$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.46 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 77c | 1,551$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.26 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 78c | 562$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 500.49$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 23c | 473.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.63 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked No | 80c | 448.98$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.29 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 80c | 375.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 62c | 274.41$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.72 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed Yes | 21c | 219.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Yes | 77c | 212.54$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 19c | 206.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 36c | 134.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 20c | 82.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 27c | 67.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 59.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 23c | 43.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…ddfabacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…947dbacked Yes | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.