Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1fb88e31a3254e64b4fa55c048f006c257c11081363820c1e63b37dbcc7faba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 5c | 807.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 711.67$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 593.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 18c | 461.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 442.9$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 405.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 57c | 285.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 227.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 19c | 227.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 224.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 17c | 219.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 214.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 10c | 199.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 182.37$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 180.81$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 70c | 168.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 154$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 149.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 20c | 147.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 67c | 146.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 135$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 37c | 116.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 112.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…5542backed Yes | 66c | 112.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 108.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 76c | 105.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 13c | 101.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 24c | 97.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 31c | 93.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…24a9backed Yes | 21c | 93.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 90.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 86.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 13c | 85.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 80.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 80.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 44c | 80.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 78.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 64c | 78.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 22c | 72.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 17c | 68.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 64.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 63.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 63.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 33c | 59.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 58.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 40c | 57.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 43c | 50.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 72c | 50.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 20c | 49.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 49.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 43c | 48.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 66c | 45.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 70c | 44.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 36.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 71c | 28.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 26.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 78c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 24.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 46c | 23.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…908abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…791ebacked No | 75c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.