Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf470778d4fde7f74384c10a7f0af00c000c374b64afea98cc41d6afb40e3ad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 706.47$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.02 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 49c | 539.41$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.6 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 442.9$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 44c | 435.15$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.15 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 407.29$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 379.8$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 361.6$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 320.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 52c | 297.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.92 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…b5f6backed No | 18c | 284.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 42c | 236.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed Yes | 43c | 236.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 222.8$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 215.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 44c | 200.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 30c | 188.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 52c | 178.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 169.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 163.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 142.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 140.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 139.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 13c | 131.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 44c | 130$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 47c | 128.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 125.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 43c | 106.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 106.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 106.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 59c | 101.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 67c | 101.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 46c | 96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 49c | 95.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 93.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 92.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 88.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 74c | 83.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 80.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 36c | 80.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6213…7e3ebacked Yes | 50c | 79.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 78c | 79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 67c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 60c | 73.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 28c | 71.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 72c | 71.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 53c | 69.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 47c | 68.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 65.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 48c | 61.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 67c | 60.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…894fbacked Yes | 54c | 59.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 51c | 59.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 44c | 57.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 57.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 70c | 57.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 56c | 53.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 30c | 52.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 52.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 52.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 46c | 51.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 44c | 51.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 49.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked No | 54c | 48.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 46.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 46.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 45.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 44c | 45.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 70c | 44.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 63c | 43.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 52c | 43.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 43.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 47c | 42.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 44c | 41.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 43c | 41.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 40.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 48c | 40.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 46c | 40.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…51cdbacked Yes | 50c | 39.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 37.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 56c | 37.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 46c | 36.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…366ebacked No | 57c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 45c | 35.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 42c | 35.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.