Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2c8a72cf6aaeb9bf31e6997787baa7ceb263ef2eed77145cb1d15b2dd98700
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 27c | 555.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 328.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 294$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 31c | 283.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 245.85$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 240.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 28c | 216.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 29c | 199.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 197.38$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 179.12$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 164.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 31c | 159.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 147.86$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 146.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 74c | 141.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 14c | 137.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 31c | 137.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 135.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 132.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 107.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 25c | 106.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 100.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed Yes | 36c | 98.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 74c | 94.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 94.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 70c | 88.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 86.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 71c | 75.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 74.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 65.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 63.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 63.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…a938backed Yes | 17c | 61.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 51.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 31c | 50.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 24c | 46.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 42.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 74c | 38.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 37.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 28c | 36.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 34.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 66c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 73c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.