Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe210c62d635d6106213f6233018fd718c22290d02b747de5b28756b435764cc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 633.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 33c | 350.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.1 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 226$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 34c | 172.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 133.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 131.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 130.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 127.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 124.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 117.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 31c | 100.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 23c | 99.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 93.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 91.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 87.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 83.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 13c | 78.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 78.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 37c | 77.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 71.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 70.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 75c | 64.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…51adbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 23c | 57.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 55.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 62c | 52.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 29c | 50.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 76c | 48.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 31c | 48.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 38.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 39c | 28.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 53c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 26.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 71c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 72c | 22.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 61c | 22.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb79…f522backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 71c | 21.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 15.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.