Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf208666bc7eaa1d960b76287507c3b18e9b6168cd949e3f1e682b3a968389ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 72c | 1,545$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.53 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 45c | 897.62$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.98 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 852.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 448.39$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 78c | 266.31$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 226.18$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 226$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed Yes | 76c | 217.65$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 63c | 131.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 20c | 109.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 30c | 106.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 24c | 101.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 96.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 89.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 35c | 86.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 83.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 66c | 80.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 72.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 64.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 60.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 36c | 57.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked No | 67c | 54.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed Yes | 40c | 49.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 20c | 49.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 48.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 47.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 67c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 43.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 43.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…09e2backed No | 80c | 40.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 80c | 39.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 39.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 51c | 37.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 32.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 31.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 31.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 26.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 21.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.