Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe21535d9fa473e1833555c45d29be33c98d7d920f178c93cc0ce8e53a540f557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 1,417$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.31 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 316.53$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 264.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 264.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.52 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 238.7$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 217$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.32 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 190.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 44c | 186.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 179.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 170.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 153.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 149.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 79c | 143.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 136.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 121.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 120.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 64c | 101.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…177abacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 61c | 81.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 78.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 14c | 77.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 75c | 77.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 74c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 52c | 65.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 57c | 59.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 57c | 59.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 58.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 53.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 47.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 41c | 44.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 25c | 43.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 41c | 42.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 42.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 43c | 41.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed No | 57c | 38.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 53c | 36.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 58c | 35.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 34.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 40c | 34.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 26.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 58c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 61c | 26.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 24.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 46c | 24.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 64c | 24.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 66c | 23.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 23.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 44c | 23.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 19.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 63c | 16.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.