Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe219cd0d3fe841ccedb77ef5b3dbdb74340eedb8ac5294a208d6bc6930b6a678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,725 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 8c | 900.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 704.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 16c | 533.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 64c | 415.41$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.15 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 346.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 341.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 49c | 219.6$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 194.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 170.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…ca21backed Yes | 20c | 167.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 75c | 127.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 125.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 67c | 124.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 33c | 119.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 13c | 114.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 105.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 101.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 19c | 78.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672e…5955backed No | 69c | 72.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…92c3backed Yes | 20c | 70.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 61.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…25a1backed Yes | 24c | 48.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 43.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 38c | 43.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…58ffbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 76c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 74c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.