Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d712e4ba26eed111133b37baf17f729518e31b562bc22b056e932ccb1a01788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 359.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 32c | 308.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.62 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 285.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 265.56$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 80c | 238.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 218.92$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 50c | 199.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 162.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 37c | 161$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 131.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 127.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 127.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 126.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 50c | 107.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 39c | 107$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 15c | 95.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 15c | 88.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed No | 74c | 87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…58ffbacked No | 33c | 81.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 33c | 79.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 75.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 31c | 75.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 28c | 63.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 44c | 56.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 53.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 46c | 45.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 39.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 66c | 37.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…92c3backed Yes | 47c | 31.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 67c | 25.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 68c | 16.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 13.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.