Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe27f9081ffa092377b8cc5b61b703ba1bd134eddaff875fc593f5a34fa55c028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,716$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.74 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 16c | 834.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 786.37$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.19 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 612$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 462$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…dd4fbacked Yes | 22c | 446.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 330.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 329.97$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 318.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 237.8$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 227.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 221.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 15c | 192.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 7c | 182.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 167.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 20c | 159.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 156.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 144.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 138$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 16c | 127.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 117.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 16c | 108$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 105.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 18c | 103.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 101.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 101.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 101.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0045backed Yes | 37c | 99.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 80c | 98.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 93.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 91.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 90.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 14c | 86.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 70c | 85.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 75c | 79.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 15c | 71.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 70.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 23c | 69.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 69.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 50c | 65.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 21c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 17c | 62.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 61.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 54.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 53.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 39.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 36c | 32.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 78c | 30.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 78c | 27.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 77c | 24.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.