Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58f044a672ba70c4cee47c8b7ab91011dcb281237c6d22cbc5f9c1a3c5f461e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 1,377$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 56c | 716.52$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.7 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 506.49$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 462$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 79c | 422.42$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 346.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 344.9$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 333.52$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 61c | 324.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 28c | 308.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 292.74$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 291.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 281$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 56c | 263.69$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 262.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 261.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.76 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 53c | 225.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 37c | 208.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 49c | 204.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked No | 46c | 199.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 65c | 199.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 189.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 55c | 184.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 40c | 176.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…010bbacked No | 39c | 174$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 170$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 55c | 163.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 163.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 48c | 154.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 40c | 149.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 144.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 47c | 141$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 65c | 136.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 59c | 132.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 60c | 126.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 65c | 113.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…9316backed Yes | 57c | 108.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 103.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 47c | 98.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 97.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 38c | 96.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 50c | 92.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 48c | 91.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 91.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 58c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 72c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 87.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 66c | 84.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 44c | 84.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 40c | 79.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 76.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 50c | 75.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 37c | 74.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 72.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 71.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 70.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 67.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 62.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 62c | 62.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 59.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 54.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 21c | 51.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 54c | 50.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 49.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 49.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 56c | 48.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 59c | 47.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 41c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…67fcbacked Yes | 56c | 44.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 52c | 43.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…a1a7backed Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 35.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 34.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…08ccbacked No | 45c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 30.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Yes | 58c | 30.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.