TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes13c2,858$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.334628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No78c2,720$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.2737056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes17c941.78$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.54,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes11c584.37$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.738,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes29c418.86$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes14c410$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.416038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c380$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.095,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No79c362.32$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.361,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes20c326.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.964,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes30c306.35$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.562,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c294.82$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes27c266.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.361,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c228$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.545,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes28c222.19$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1942820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No78c195.79$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.961,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes25c180.47$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9917536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa303…2991backed Yes28c177$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes21c174.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9519022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes26c169.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.671,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c145.49$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.993,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…9044backed Yes23c138.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.158920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No71c137.63$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No76c136.88$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes20c129.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c123$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.663,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.85,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.123241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c118.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.384,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No76c108.81$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.491,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No74c102$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5228455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c95.16$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.484,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes20c95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1943050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No69c90$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.553855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes34c88.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.23429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No76c87.67$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.893,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed Yes18c81.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes35c80.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.463538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c80.64$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.779,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No68c79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.546,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No79c74.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.542,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes18c67.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.229744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No74c67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.231,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No77c64.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.574,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c60.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.032,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.824046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.627056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.233,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes33c56.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.292416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No71c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No78c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.12,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No76c52.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.658358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes35c51.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No77c51.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.731,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc209…3de3backed No77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.594261.9%26 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes26c49.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8323958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No75c45.84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4149551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.772,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No78c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.119662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No71c43.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.381,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes23c42.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes32c42.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8246743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes29c41.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1585330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No66c41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x67d8…ec63backed Yes29c40.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-69.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No71c40.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.761,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes29c39.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.566648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes29c39.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.536439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked No70c36.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.996966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes32c36.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes28c35.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ba…1deabacked No73c33.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.084450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c29.55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.953,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed Yes36c29.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.495343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No71c28.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.142,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No71c28.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2211163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6747175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No72c26.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.361,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No75c26.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.732,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6421472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No77c22.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.182,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c20.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.272,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.225954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.731,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.734067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No71c19.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.652,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No66c15.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3117361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No68c15.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.92,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.