Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2bc5613acf92037e82be22943d4ca3baf451ae2f7ab9730374fa49e46a309ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 28c | 1,561$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.6 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 946.25$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 397.01$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 192.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 30c | 167.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 10c | 163.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 134.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 121.13$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 118.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 110.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 94.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 80.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 37c | 74.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 72.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 65.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5436…bc33backed Yes | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 53.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 29c | 45.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 72c | 41.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 36.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 32c | 35.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 29c | 35.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…c82cbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 29.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…cc20backed No | 71c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 63c | 28.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 71c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.