Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b5b783061bf11706401dce98ded019d8885e02a15e0318854ccd49c872862af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 1,230$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 509.23$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 496.59$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 458.98$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 71c | 289.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 32c | 218.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 185.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 185$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 67c | 174.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 171$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 161.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 71c | 161.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 31c | 158.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 153.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 150.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 138.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 128.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 124.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 115.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 72c | 110.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 102.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 93.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 92.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 79.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 32c | 72.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 15c | 70.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 57.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 55.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 54.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 53.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 65c | 53.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 53.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…be81backed No | 74c | 49.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 61c | 49.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 36c | 48.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 47.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 46.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 32c | 43.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 42.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 32c | 38.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 31.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 36c | 30.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 29.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 50c | 25.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 20.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.