Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Duke advance to the Final Four?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2d9d869dd27bb86421791d08663c8b76de66d324adf51041cf77362ce046d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 25c | 857.67$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 60c | 639.99$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 46c | 381.1$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.7 | 316 | 46.8%148 W · 168 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 34c | 356.91$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.96 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed No | 44c | 300.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…a634backed Yes | 55c | 260$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 45c | 235$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +8.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d83…d1dabacked Yes | 56c | 224.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 19c | 139.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 167 | 21%35 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…9df1backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 95.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…65dbbacked Yes | 55c | 91.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 73c | 87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 76c | 84.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…e1fabacked Yes | 68c | 80.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 18c | 77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 39c | 57.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…7916backed Yes | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 37c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…0d88backed No | 51c | 50.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 23c | 49.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 29c | 36.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 31c | 36.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…e14cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 68c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Duke advance to the Final Four?this page
- Will Arizona advance to the Final Four?Yes won
- Will Arkansas advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Florida advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Houston advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Illinois advance to the Final Four?Yes won
- Will Iowa State advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Kansas advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Michigan State advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Michigan advance to the Final Four?Yes won
- Will Nebraska advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Purdue advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Queens advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will St. John’s advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Tennessee advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Texas advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will UConn advance to the Final Four?Yes won
- Will Utah State advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Virginia advance to the Final Four?No won
- Will Wisconsin advance to the Final Four?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.