Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2f00c3395e9f3ad5f84867a06c2d26cf273aedc630fd386ccfdcc57e0a9ba06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 2,594$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.64 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakult Brothers | 30c | 2,426$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.55 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Team Spirit | 78c | 1,504$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.91 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Team Spirit | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Yakult Brothers | 26c | 946.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Yakult Brothers | 7c | 876.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 763.78$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Spirit | 69c | 706.39$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.98 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Yakult Brothers | 21c | 642.86$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yakult Brothers | 32c | 616.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Team Spirit | 69c | 592$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.52 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Yakult Brothers | 26c | 545.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Yakult Brothers | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Yakult Brothers | 21c | 421.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Yakult Brothers | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Team Spirit | 61c | 352.77$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.58 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yakult Brothers | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Spirit | 73c | 294$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Yakult Brothers | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Team Spirit | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…50d6backed Team Spirit | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Team Spirit | 74c | 163.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yakult Brothers | 9c | 155.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…3e1abacked Team Spirit | 65c | 153.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Yakult Brothers | 16c | 137.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Yakult Brothers | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Spirit | 74c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Team Spirit | 79c | 91.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Yakult Brothers | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…037abacked Team Spirit | 80c | 26.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 WinnerYakult Brothers won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.