Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc0dd401377cef368053d55357b452c844ad1e631c9e78528c0a7707a6b8ee2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakult Brothersof Team Spirit, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Team Spirit | 30c | 3,375$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.13 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yakult Brothers | 72c | 2,743$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakult Brothers | 61c | 2,500$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.45 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked Team Spirit | 44c | 1,572$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.67 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yakult Brothers | 25c | 1,355$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.95 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Spirit | 63c | 1,347$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.73 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Spirit | 60c | 1,180$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.01 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Team Spirit | 77c | 1,041$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.36 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yakult Brothers | 32c | 944.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.82 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Team Spirit | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Yakult Brothers | 42c | 478.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.97 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 418.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Yakult Brothers | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…3058backed Yakult Brothers | 74c | 368.78$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Yakult Brothers | 70c | 357.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.95 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Team Spirit | 9c | 355.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 68c | 355$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…3e80backed Yakult Brothers | 75c | 231.43$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Yakult Brothers | 46c | 216.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Yakult Brothers | 71c | 190$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…29d6backed Team Spirit | 18c | 165$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…2443backed Yakult Brothers | 74c | 135.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Team Spirit | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 129.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Spirit | 15c | 110.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Team Spirit | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Yakult Brothers | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…d13bbacked Team Spirit | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Yakult Brothers | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Spirit | 77c | 76.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Team Spirit | 36c | 56.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…22f0backed Team Spirit | 67c | 18.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 16.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.