Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe37b8494759644b3e932e27cb41277edb67842de6bfc97e3f793c890430f9a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 44c | 1,837$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.93 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked No | 61c | 1,349$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.14 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked No | 51c | 1,228$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 56c | 1,068$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.31 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 985.12$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.39 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 43c | 474.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.75 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 51c | 400$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 26c | 399.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 49c | 350$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…b3e0backed Yes | 41c | 326.71$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 49c | 316.96$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 49c | 303.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.49 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 69c | 291.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 64c | 266.97$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 40c | 230$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 209.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…91a3backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…1dd1backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…0681backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…95d4backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…16e9backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed Yes | 47c | 97.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e20…fa61backed No | 72c | 92.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 72.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked Yes | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…1dfbbacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 68c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 8?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 8?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.