Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf4446a3647f7c1e80c63b4ac740ba72cffe06a8fb9a372077df82b9ab960631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 1,450$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.86 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 37c | 1,115$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.55 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 49c | 930.32$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 49c | 888$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 48c | 668.87$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.11 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…db9ebacked No | 69c | 595.7$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 47c | 589.37$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.2 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 45c | 581.93$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 49c | 555$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 66c | 500$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 35c | 478.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.64 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed No | 51c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 33c | 360.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.29 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…6bf7backed Yes | 42c | 357.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 37c | 350.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.51 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 40c | 349.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.37 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 48c | 320.21$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 47c | 299.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 67c | 216.56$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.1 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed No | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed No | 40c | 198.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e20…fa61backed No | 77c | 178.35$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…7695backed No | 45c | 165$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…6898backed No | 39c | 131.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd313…c026backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…714abacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…94c1backed No | 42c | 83.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 60.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…8825backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…293ebacked No | 37c | 48.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 46c | 39.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes | 70c | 36.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…4bfabacked Yes | 56c | 36.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked No | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 58c | 26.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 48c | 24.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 8?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 8?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 8?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.