Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. T1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cbd724a074f32e4e950cef4075f5b10d5e6c11687a9aa176bddf722fd74a83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- T1of Nongshim, T1
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Nongshim | 6c | 66,881$4,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,093.64 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nongshim | 10c | 27,042$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.07 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Nongshim | 4c | 18,408$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.21 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8a7ebacked Nongshim | 15c | 8,371$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.04 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Nongshim | 5c | 8,005$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.75 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Nongshim | 15c | 6,674$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.23 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Nongshim | 3c | 3,965$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Nongshim | 3c | 3,304$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Nongshim | 8c | 3,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8134…8eaabacked Nongshim | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3708…80d0backed Nongshim | 5c | 1,922$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Nongshim | 9c | 1,743$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Nongshim | 11c | 1,716$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nongshim | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nongshim | 4c | 1,650$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Nongshim | 11c | 1,444$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Nongshim | 5c | 1,050$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Nongshim | 6c | 1,035$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…5e4ebacked Nongshim | 14c | 1,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Nongshim | 5c | 999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Nongshim | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…5f52backed Nongshim | 10c | 777$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…6e04backed Nongshim | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…3f30backed Nongshim | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Nongshim | 5c | 470$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Nongshim | 13c | 452.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Nongshim | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nongshim | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nongshim | 9c | 354.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…bda6backed Nongshim | 10c | 352.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Nongshim | 15c | 302$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 431 | 48%207 W · 224 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Nongshim | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked Nongshim | 7c | 239.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Nongshim | 14c | 235$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 259 | 52.9%137 W · 122 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Nongshim | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +12.5wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed Nongshim | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…c486backed Nongshim | 7c | 178.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Nongshim | 15c | 170.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 504 | 55%277 W · 227 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…7733backed Nongshim | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nongshim | 14c | 79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.