NFL · resolved market

Spread: Patriots (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe41627a77029b38a4e31e3112692de712180889932d3c0bbaeee37626a853d4d

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Patriotsof Patriots, Panthers
Resolved: Sep 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,279
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,279 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2131…aaf2backed Panthers	52c	27,082$14,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,082.44	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Patriots	48c	26,000$12,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,520	176	47.7%84 W · 92 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots	48c	10,094$4,844 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,250	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Panthers	52c	9,412$4,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,894	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-8.5wins	-0.29per pick	50cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	33-0.16 edge/pick
0x38fa…0aacbacked Patriots	48c	5,848$2,807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,040.92	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+34%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Patriots	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,550	358	48.6%174 W · 184 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Panthers	52c	5,000$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,600	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Patriots	48c	4,732$2,271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,460.68	418	51.9%217 W · 201 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Panthers	52c	4,000$2,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080	257	44.4%114 W · 143 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked Patriots	51c	3,922$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,921.57	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Panthers	49c	3,566$1,747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,747.23	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Panthers	52c	1,924$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	-8.5wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Patriots	48c	1,665$799 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$865.8	206	61.2%126 W · 80 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Panthers	51c	980.39$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Patriots	49c	894$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.94	245	51%125 W · 120 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Panthers	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	266	48.9%130 W · 136 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Panthers	51c	550$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.5	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Patriots	49c	550$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.5	123	43.1%53 W · 70 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Panthers	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	167	37.7%63 W · 104 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Patriots	50c	403.2$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.6	77	51.9%40 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Patriots	50c	342$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.31	446	52.9%236 W · 210 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Patriots	48c	300$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	149	45.6%68 W · 81 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8e…0f12backed Patriots	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Panthers	52c	298.11$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.02	276	44.2%122 W · 154 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Panthers	49c	250$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	206	50.5%104 W · 102 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…e0bdbacked Panthers	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	50	50%25 W · 25 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Patriots	49c	205$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.55	157	46.5%73 W · 84 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Patriots	49c	204.78$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.78	159	44%70 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Patriots	48c	201.92$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	225	48.4%109 W · 116 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Patriots	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Panthers	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Patriots	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-10.3wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Panthers	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Patriots	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Panthers	52c	96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	304	42.4%129 W · 175 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Panthers	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Patriots	50c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	205	42%86 W · 119 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Patriots	51c	68.63$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.63	158	55.7%88 W · 70 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Patriots	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	170	60.6%103 W · 67 L	+12.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Patriots	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	134	55.2%74 W · 60 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a45…36dcbacked Panthers	52c	27.02$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Patriots (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event