Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4378e4c6518194235806de01f3d101e79d924da77d9f0db2e972efaf215d063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 23c | 6,089$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.86 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 5,268$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.47 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…48d4backed Over | 24c | 1,029$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 77c | 304.62$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 18c | 265.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 77c | 253.48$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 209.5$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 78c | 98.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -9.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…e047backed Over | 21c | 72.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 76c | 50.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 80c | 46.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…d7a0backed Over | 24c | 42.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 76c | 42.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 77c | 38.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 78c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 78c | 28.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff5f…b2e2backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.